Growing up in the ’80s and ’90s, I got a front row seat to the explosion of pop-culture as entertainment. Not the least of which was MTV’s first season of The Real World. That show can be blamed for the proliferation of reality TV with its promise of high viewership, low production cost and questionable entertainment. It also created a pop-culture meme of its time with the tagline, in part, being “What happens when people stop being polite and start getting real?”
For years, it seems, we have collectively gone out of our way to be polite when discussing startups that have spent millions and returned little profits. We have excused companies who have clearly focused more on their planned exits than building an actual enterprise. Company perks like free food, ping-pong tables and dedicated napping stations were celebrated as signals of an organization’s greatness.
For those who work within or closely follow the startup community, you can see increasing calls for companies to get real. While startup companies still hold a highly desirable reputation among the media, venture capitalists and the millennial workforce, there were some warning signs that all was not well. We started to see some high-profile examples of how the promise and excitement of some companies may be more sizzle than steak.
Theranos was very publically lanced (pun intended) by the Wall Street Journal when it cited some research showing questionable reliability in the screening tech it promotes. It also cited what could be called revisionist story telling on the part of their founder Elizabeth Holmes. Both the WSJ and Theranos have doubled-down on their versions of the story.
Because Theranos is trying to make health care screening and monitoring less costly and more widely available, they have been appropriately celebrated for years. Unfortunately, the actual application of their efforts is drawing worthwhile scrutiny and the intoxication with their story is starting to transition into a nasty hangover.
Twitter laid off 336 people this year; about 8% of its workforce at that time. This number is dwarfed by the thousands of people laid off in heavy industries like steel production and coal mining but it sent shivers through the tech world as people realized even a brand behemoth like Twitter had to accept a certain level of financial and market reality.
Layoffs, in general, are on the rise among tech companies of all sizes. The number of people hired and fired in the same fiscal year is growing and those recently short-termed employees are less likely to accept tales of explosive growth and dedicated investors at face value when considering employment at that “next†startup.
Square has demonstrated the ability to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in the last few years as burn rates in the tech sector continue to expand even as investor money starts to tighten. I’m not intentionally targeting Jack Dorsey by using two of his companies as example in this article but Jack is now trying to perform two turnarounds simultaneously at companies that are supposed to be in growth mode, not survival mode. By all accounts, Jack is just as capable of pulling this off as anyone and is certainly showing the dedication needed to get it done.
There are currently 140 companies with a valuation of $1 billion or more. The key word here is valuation. The simple way of illustrating how ridiculous valuations have become is to remind everyone there are only 51 US companies currently listed by Inc Magazine generating $1 billion in annual revenue. Before you send me a bunch of hate mail for comparing revenue and valuation without considering exit values, assets or goodwill payments, recognize that valuations are largely a conspiracy between start-ups looking for cash and VCs looking to attract more Limited Partners. VCs with a paltry 10% success rate routinely attract more private money every year. Valuations are works of fiction.
Whether its inflated valuations or global instability in public markets, private investment money is drying up at a statistically-material rate. VCs saw a decline in funds raised by 34% in Q3 when compared to Q2 this year. It also represented the slowest period for raising money since 2013. IPOs also under-delivered in 2015. As published by the International Business Times, “According to PitchBook, this money (IPOs) amounted to about $64 billion on 860 deals during the first 11 months of this year and about $94 billion on 994 deals over all of last year.”
As we close out 2015, it has become increasingly important for the tech and startup communities to become more self-aware, transparent and start getting real with everyone. Whether those communities are willing to pull back the proverbial kimono or not, there will be a reckoning with investors, employees and customers if they continue to paint their worth in endless streams of run-rates and growth trajectories.
Employees who were once more attracted to the name or promise of a startup are now more inclined to consider how stable a company is and whether they will be back on the job market within a few months chasing the next unicorn-in-valuation-only. Many of the Twitter employees laid off were rehired within literal minutes of becoming unemployed but that not likely to happen in perpetuity.
Investors who became VC LPs because they were tired of the 7% – 8% annual return for their public stocks and equities are now reassessing their risk-tolerance as the public markets have fluctuated significantly in Q4. The play-money investors were spending on longshot startup seed investments just won’t be as plentiful in the next 18-24 months as most pundits believe we have passed the peak of private investing for the current cycle.
People have already started to stop being polite about the performance of startups and established tech companies. Questions about profitability and long term viability are being asked with less guarded phrasing and with expectations they can be credibly answered by founders who have taken millions in private funding.
The companies that get real and are willing to not only tell us about the warts in their startup business but actively work on solutions for those imperfections will stand out from the crowd and attract the best employees, most dedicated investors, highest-value board members and loyal customers. When they make a mistake, they will own it immediately and without equivocation. They will build a company more focused on growth and durability than maximizing its exit offers. In 2016, the companies that are willing to get real will win while their competitors hope everyone continues to be polite about their lack of success.
2016 Will be the Year Successful Startups Get Real May 20th, 2016Matt Hottle
